Off-limb (spicule) DEM distribution from SoHO/SUMER observations

In the present work we derive a Differential Emission Measure (DEM) dis- tribution from a region dominated by spicules. We use spectral data from the Solar Ultraviolet Measurements of Emitted Radiation (SUMER) spectrometer on-board the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) covering the entire SUMER wavelength range taken off-limb in the Northern polar coronal hole to construct this DEM distribution using the CHIANTI atomic database. This distribution is then used to study the thermal properties of the emission contributing to the 171 {\AA} channel in the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on-board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). From our off-limb DEM we found that the radiance in the AIA 171 {\AA} channel is dominated by emission from the Fe ix 171.07 {\AA} line and has sparingly little contribution from other lines. The product of the Fe ix 171.07 {\AA} line contribution function with the off-limb DEM was found to have a maximum at logTmax (K) = 5.8 indicating that during spicule observations the emission in this line comes from plasma at transition region temperatures rather than coronal. For comparison, the same product with a quiet Sun and prominence DEM were found to have a maximum at logT max (K) = 5.9 and logTmax (K) = 5.7, respectively. We point out that the interpretation of data obtained from the AIA 171 {\AA} filter should be done with foreknowledge of the thermal nature of the observed phenomenon. For example, with an off-limb DEM we find that only 3.6% of the plasma is above a million degrees, whereas using a quiet Sun DEM, this contribution rises to 15%.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures accepted by Solar Physic

Automated Detection of EUV Polar Coronal Holes During Solar Cycle 23

A new method for automated detection of polar coronal holes is presented. This method, called perimeter tracing, uses a series of 171, 195, and 304 \AA\ full disk images from the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on SOHO over solar cycle 23 to measure the perimeter of polar coronal holes as they appear on the limbs. Perimeter tracing minimizes line-of-sight obscurations caused by the emitting plasma of the various wavelengths by taking measurements at the solar limb. Perimeter tracing also allows for the polar rotation period to emerge organically from the data as 33 days. We have called this the Harvey rotation rate and count Harvey rotations starting 4 January 1900. From the measured perimeter, we are then able to fit a curve to the data and derive an area within the line of best fit. We observe the area of the northern polar hole area in 1996, at the beginning of solar cycle 23, to be about 4.2% of the total solar surface area and about 3.6% in 2007. The area of the southern polar hole is observed to be about 4.0% in 1996 and about 3.4% in 2007. Thus, both the north and south polar hole areas are no more than 15% smaller now than they were at the beginning of cycle 23. This compares to the polar magnetic field measured to be about 40% less now than it was a cycle ago.Comment: 18 pagers, 7 figures, accepted to Solar Physic

Multi-timescale Solar Cycles and the Possible Implications

Based on analysis of the annual averaged relative sunspot number (ASN) during 1700 -- 2009, 3 kinds of solar cycles are confirmed: the well-known 11-yr cycle (Schwabe cycle), 103-yr secular cycle (numbered as G1, G2, G3, and G4, respectively since 1700); and 51.5-yr Cycle. From similarities, an extrapolation of forthcoming solar cycles is made, and found that the solar cycle 24 will be a relative long and weak Schwabe cycle, which may reach to its apex around 2012-2014 in the vale between G3 and G4. Additionally, most Schwabe cycles are asymmetric with rapidly rising-phases and slowly decay-phases. The comparisons between ASN and the annual flare numbers with different GOES classes (C-class, M-class, X-class, and super-flare, here super-flare is defined as $\geq$ X10.0) and the annal averaged radio flux at frequency of 2.84 GHz indicate that solar flares have a tendency: the more powerful of the flare, the later it takes place after the onset of the Schwabe cycle, and most powerful flares take place in the decay phase of Schwabe cycle. Some discussions on the origin of solar cycles are presented.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

From Predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather: Practical Examples of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research

The successful transition of research to operations (R2O) and operations to research (O2R) requires, above all, interaction between the two communities. We explore the role that close interaction and ongoing communication played in the successful fielding of three separate developments: an observation platform, a numerical model, and a visualization and specification tool. Additionally, we will examine how these three pieces came together to revolutionize interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival forecasts. A discussion of the importance of education and training in ensuring a positive outcome from R2O activity follows. We describe efforts by the meteorological community to make research results more accessible to forecasters and the applicability of these efforts to the transfer of space-weather research.We end with a forecaster "wish list" for R2O transitions. Ongoing, two-way communication between the research and operations communities is the thread connecting it all.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures, Solar Physics in pres

Deflection and Rotation of CMEs from Active Region 11158

Between the 13 and 16 of February 2011 a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) erupted from multiple polarity inversion lines within active region 11158. For seven of these CMEs we use the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) flux rope model to determine the CME trajectory using both Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and coronagraph images. We then use the Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) model for nonradial CME dynamics driven by magnetic forces, to simulate the deflection and rotation of the seven CMEs. We find good agreement between the ForeCAT results and the reconstructed CME positions and orientations. The CME deflections range in magnitude between 10 degrees and 30 degrees. All CMEs deflect to the north but we find variations in the direction of the longitudinal deflection. The rotations range between 5\mydeg and 50\mydeg with both clockwise and counterclockwise rotations occurring. Three of the CMEs begin with initial positions within 2 degrees of one another. These three CMEs all deflect primarily northward, with some minor eastward deflection, and rotate counterclockwise. Their final positions and orientations, however, respectively differ by 20 degrees and 30 degrees. This variation in deflection and rotation results from differences in the CME expansion and radial propagation close to the Sun, as well as the CME mass. Ultimately, only one of these seven CMEs yielded discernible in situ signatures near Earth, despite the active region facing near Earth throughout the eruptions. We suggest that the differences in the deflection and rotation of the CMEs can explain whether each CME impacted or missed the Earth.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures, accepted in Solar Physic

A spatio-temporal description of the abrupt changes in the photospheric magnetic and Lorentz-force vectors during the 2011 February 15 X2.2 flare

The active region NOAA 11158 produced the first X-class flare of Solar Cycle 24, an X2.2 flare at 01:44 UT on 2011 February 15. Here we analyze SDO/HMI magnetograms covering a 12-hour interval centered at the time of this flare. We describe the spatial distributions of the photospheric magnetic changes associated with this flare, including the abrupt changes in the field vector, vertical electric current and Lorentz force vector. We also trace these parameters' temporal evolution. The abrupt magnetic changes were concentrated near the neutral line and in two neighboring sunspots. Near the neutral line, the field vectors became stronger and more horizontal during the flare and the shear increased. This was due to an increase in strength of the horizontal field components near the neutral line, most significant in the horizontal component parallel to the neutral line but the perpendicular component also increased in strength. The vertical component did not show a significant, permanent overall change at the neutral line. The increase in total flux at the neutral line was accompanied by a compensating flux decrease in the surrounding volume. In the two sunspots near the neutral line the azimuthal flux abruptly decreased during the flare but this change was permanent in only one of the spots. There was a large, abrupt, downward vertical Lorentz force change during the flare, consistent with results of past analyses and recent theoretical work. The horizontal Lorentz force acted in opposite directions along each side of neutral line, with the two sunspots at each end subject to abrupt torsional forces. The shearing forces were consistent with field contraction and decrease of shear near the neutral line, whereas the field itself became more sheared as a result of the flux collapsing towards the neutral line from the surrounding volume.Comment: DOI 10.1007/s11207-012-0071-0. Accepted for publication in Solar Physics SDO3 Topical Issue. Some graphics missing due to 15MB limi

Triggering an eruptive flare by emerging flux in a solar active-region complex

A flare and fast coronal mass ejection originated between solar active regions NOAA 11514 and 11515 on July 1, 2012 in response to flux emergence in front of the leading sunspot of the trailing region 11515. Analyzing the evolution of the photospheric magnetic flux and the coronal structure, we find that the flux emergence triggered the eruption by interaction with overlying flux in a non-standard way. The new flux neither had the opposite orientation nor a location near the polarity inversion line, which are favorable for strong reconnection with the arcade flux under which it emerged. Moreover, its flux content remained significantly smaller than that of the arcade (approximately 40 %). However, a loop system rooted in the trailing active region ran in part under the arcade between the active regions, passing over the site of flux emergence. The reconnection with the emerging flux, leading to a series of jet emissions into the loop system, caused a strong but confined rise of the loop system. This lifted the arcade between the two active regions, weakening its downward tension force and thus destabilizing the considerably sheared flux under the arcade. The complex event was also associated with supporting precursor activity in an enhanced network near the active regions, acting on the large-scale overlying flux, and with two simultaneous confined flares within the active regions.Comment: Accepted for publication in Topical Issue of Solar Physics: Solar and Stellar Flares. 25 pages, 12 figure

Extreme Ultra-Violet Spectroscopy of the Lower Solar Atmosphere During Solar Flares

The extreme ultraviolet portion of the solar spectrum contains a wealth of diagnostic tools for probing the lower solar atmosphere in response to an injection of energy, particularly during the impulsive phase of solar flares. These include temperature and density sensitive line ratios, Doppler shifted emission lines and nonthermal broadening, abundance measurements, differential emission measure profiles, and continuum temperatures and energetics, among others. In this paper I shall review some of the advances made in recent years using these techniques, focusing primarily on studies that have utilized data from Hinode/EIS and SDO/EVE, while also providing some historical background and a summary of future spectroscopic instrumentation.Comment: 34 pages, 8 figures. Submitted to Solar Physics as part of the Topical Issue on Solar and Stellar Flare

Monthly sunspot number time series analysis and its modeling through autoregressive artificial neural network

This study reports a statistical analysis of monthly sunspot number time series and observes non homogeneity and asymmetry within it. Using Mann-Kendall test a linear trend is revealed. After identifying stationarity within the time series we generate autoregressive AR(p) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA(p,q)). Based on minimization of AIC we find 3 and 1 as the best values of p and q respectively. In the next phase, autoregressive neural network (AR-NN(3)) is generated by training a generalized feedforward neural network (GFNN). Assessing the model performances by means of Willmott's index of second order and coefficient of determination, the performance of AR-NN(3) is identified to be better than AR(3) and ARMA(3,1).Comment: 17 pages, 4 figure